Trader Lu Yao: The Bear Market Is Not Over, Vast Majority of Altcoins Still Not Worth Buying

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a post that as Bitcoin’s price rebounds sharply, the proportion of short-term holder (STH) supply in profit has surged from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%, meaning nearly three-quarters of short-term holders who were previously in the red have returned to profitability. Meanwhile, the net trading platform flow of short-term holders turned positive from negative, rising to 28,600 BTC on August 24 and breaking through the key level of 25,000 BTC. Data shows that as the average realized profit of short-term holders turns positive, the amount of BTC they transfer to trading platforms has increased significantly, indicating rising potential selling pressure. If this indicator remains above 25,000 BTC while Bitcoin’s upward momentum slows, the risk of short-term profit-taking and distribution pressure in the market will further increase. The analysis points out that the rapid rebound in the profit proportion of short-term holders, paired with the simultaneous rise in inflows to trading platforms, reflects a coexistence of market recovery and potential selling pressure. If the profit supply proportion rises further above 90% while price momentum weakens, the risk of local overheating in the market will rise; conversely, if trading platform flow falls back to near zero and the profit supply remains above 50%, it is more likely that the market will enter a relatively healthy consolidation phase.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. pre-market trading on Monday saw the semiconductor, storage, and optical communications sectors all edge lower. Semiconductor stocks were broadly down, with Lam Research (LRCX) falling 2.39%, Intel (INTC) down 1.7%, Applied Materials (AMAT) dropping 2.05%, and Arm (ARM) declining 1.96%. The storage sector trended downward in tandem, with SK Hynix (SKHY) down 3.02%, Micron Technology (MU) falling 3.18%, Western Digital (WDC) dropping 2.61%, SanDisk (SNDK) declining 4.08%, and Seagate Technology (STX) down 2.94%. Optical communications-related stocks led the declines, with Astera Labs (ALAB) falling 4.11%, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) plunging 11.66%, Coherent (COHR) down 4.16%, Credo (CRDO) declining 3.34%, and Lumentum (LITE) dropping 4.35%.

According to a Reuters report, three Pakistani sources revealed that Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump last week. Just a few days later, Munir is set to visit Tehran today to meet with senior Iranian officials. The conversation comes as the U.S. threatens to impose sweeping economic sanctions targeting Iran and its trade partners. It remains unclear what topics Munir and Trump discussed during their call.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. pre-market crypto-related stocks were mixed, with: CRCL down 1.59%, MSTR down 0.36%, MARA down 1.15%, COIN down 1.37%, RIOT down 0.66%, BMNR up 0.51%, and PURR up 3.12%.

Binance co-founder He Yi has issued a statement noting that CZ does not use WeChat. The highly active "Binance Mall" WeChat groups and the fake CZ accounts within them are run by scammers promoting pyramid schemes. Please alert one another to guard against fraud.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has published a post noting that the bull-bear market indicator has just shifted into the early phase of a bull market. Though the indicator is not a flawless market signal, this shift confirms that market conditions have improved notably. This trend warrants close monitoring in the weeks ahead.