QCP: Increases in long-dated US Treasury repos and ETF capital inflows are jointly driving market strength, with this week’s focus turning to three major macro variables.

QCP Capital’s market commentary notes that Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly performance since March 2024 last week, surging over 20% and hitting roughly $79,500 at one point. This rally coincided with sharp shifts in interest rate markets: the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield briefly neared its 2007 high of 5.3%, after which the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would raise the size of its long-end liquidity support repo operations from a maximum of $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion starting September 9. Long-end yields pulled back in response, the U.S. dollar weakened, and Bitcoin rose in lockstep with gold. Position adjustments accelerated the initial breakout, while spot market participation continued to strengthen. U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together drew around $2.6 billion in net inflows last week, marking their strongest single-week inflow since October 2025. This week, market focus has shifted to three macro variables: PCE inflation data, NVIDIA’s earnings (a signal for the AI investment cycle), and Federal Reserve Chair Waller’s first keynote speech at Jackson Hole (a signal for the monetary policy framework). Waller will deliver his speech at 10 PM ET on Friday, while July PCE data and the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released on Wednesday. QCP concluded that last week’s market moves were driven primarily by position adjustments and U.S. Treasury market dynamics, and whether this week’s data can offer clearer guidance on the macro backdrop will be the market’s core focus.