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Analysis: Bitcoin's next price movement may hinge on PCE data, Nvidia's earnings report, and Waller's remarks.

50 minutes ago

Bitcoin’s next move may hinge on three key events this week: the U.S. July PCE inflation data, NVIDIA’s second-quarter financial results, and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. After surging from around $63,000 to above $80,000, Bitcoin has now pulled back to below $79,000, with its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70, indicating a short-term overbought condition. Markets expect the U.S. July core PCE to rise 3.2% year-over-year and 0.18% month-over-month, compared to 3.3% YoY and 0.13% MoM in June. A hotter-than-expected reading could reignite fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes, putting pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. CME FedWatch data shows the bond market currently assigns a nearly 38% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. NVIDIA will release its second-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday. A strong beat on results could ease market concerns over AI capital expenditures relying on debt financing, and support risk assets. Since the start of 2025, the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and NVIDIA’s stock price has remained above 0.5 for most of the period. Traders will also be watching Warsh’s remarks on Friday. The U.S. Treasury’s recent plan to increase long-term Treasury repurchases to curb yield rises has been viewed by markets as a catalyst driving Bitcoin’s recent rally. Markets will monitor whether Warsh adjusts his previous stance favoring market-based pricing, and whether he expresses support for the Treasury’s related actions.

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US inflation remained sticky in July, while the country’s second-quarter GDP growth rate held steady at 1.5%.

The U.S. annual inflation rate in July unexpectedly held steady, marking the 65th consecutive month it has remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Disruptions from the Iran conflict have stalled the recent downward trend in inflation after it hit high levels, likely intensifying tense internal debates within the Fed over whether to raise interest rates or keep policy unchanged. Data released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that the Fed’s preferred gauge—the U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—rose 3.7% year-over-year, matching June’s figure and coming in above the 3.6% analyst forecast. With trade talks between the U.S. and its second-largest trading partner Canada collapsing on Friday, a new wave of tariff-driven inflation pressure may be on the horizon. On a month-over-month basis, the July PCE price index rose 0.2%, also exceeding economists’ expectations. The index had fallen 0.1% month-over-month in June, its lowest level since April 2020. The BEA also revised second-quarter economic growth data, keeping the annualized growth rate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) unchanged at 1.5%. (Jinshi)

7 minutes ago

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), came in flat month-over-month.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, has been released. The annual PCE inflation rate stood at 3.7%, unchanged from June. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE annual inflation hit 3.3%, also flat with June. Since the report incorporates other inflation data released earlier, PCE figures typically align closely with investor expectations. But as the Fed grapples with inflation, this report further clarifies the inflation landscape, and Fed Chair Walsh is set to deliver a key speech on Friday. U.S. CPI data brought good news in July: core CPI fell to a relatively moderate 2.5%. However, the PCE inflation rate assigns different weights to various spending categories, so its reading has consistently run higher. There remains significant uncertainty about how Walsh views the inflation challenge he has taken on. He has not included his own economic projections in the quarterly dot plot, which aggregates Fed officials’ outlooks for the economy and interest rates; nor has he signaled whether he might support additional rate hikes at upcoming meetings, an issue that has sparked divisions among Fed officials. (Jin10)

7 minutes ago

Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month have edged up.

Market pricing indicates that expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have slightly risen, after U.S. government data revealed the Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, slightly exceeding economists’ forecasts. Interest rate futures data shows that following the data release, the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at around 42%, up from roughly 36% before the data was published. (Jin10)

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MiniMax: The company's annual recurring revenue exceeded $800 million in August.

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The U.S. July core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations.

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