Strait of Hormuz shipping resumption’s substance in doubt: Gulf oil producers accelerate tanker loading, but Asian oil imports remain weak

Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly recovering, but a notable gap persists between the accelerated loading of Gulf oil producers and actual imports to Asia, leaving the market skeptical about the authenticity of the supply recovery. Traders currently estimate that around 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily, roughly half the pre-conflict level. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait have all seen a rebound in loading activities recently, with Iraq’s daily loading capacity once exceeding pre-conflict levels. However, some crude oil still requires transshipment via locations such as Oman’s Sohar Port and the UAE’s Fujairah, so increased loading does not mean the oil has actually reached Asian buyers. Data from Kpler shows that Asia’s crude oil imports in August are projected to hit 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd), about 14% lower than the average of 26.91 million bpd in the three months before the conflict. Among these, India’s August crude oil imports are expected to be only 4.51 million bpd, with around 1.45 million bpd coming from the Middle East—just half the pre-conflict average. Additionally, Middle Eastern crude oil arriving in Asia in August stands at around 11.11 million bpd, higher than July’s 10.76 million bpd but still nearly 30% below the pre-conflict level of 15.82 million bpd. Analysts note that the current gap between loading volumes and arrival figures may partly result from shipping delays, and data in the coming weeks will be critical to determining whether supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have truly recovered.