Waller’s Hawkish Surprise: September Rate Hike Probability Soars, Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI as Final Judges

U.S. President Donald Trump once again publicly called on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates sharply on Friday, pressuring the Fed and its Chairman Kevin Wash, claiming the U.S. should have the world’s lowest interest rates. He even threatened that if relevant countries continue running massive trade surpluses with the U.S., America may halt trade with nations that hold trade deficits against it. This statement stands in sharp contrast to the strong U.S. jobs data released the same day. U.S. August non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000, far exceeding the market consensus of 56,000. July’s figure was also sharply revised from a previously reported decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The robust jobs data further dimmed market expectations for Fed rate cuts, prompting markets to reassess the September monetary policy path. Investors are now awaiting August’s CPI data, due next week, to assess inflation trends and the Fed’s future policy direction. Bloomberg Economics projects that August’s year-on-year headline CPI growth may climb to 3.4%, while core CPI year-on-year growth could drop to 2.4%. Market analysts note that Trump’s persistent demand for rate cuts is in clear conflict with the current labor market resilience and the reality that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Ahead of the September Fed meeting, CPI and energy price movements will be key variables shaping policy expectations.

Insight Beating AI News Flash: Nscale, an artificial intelligence cloud computing specialist, is seeking pre-IPO funding with plans to raise up to $3.5 billion. According to people familiar with the matter, the London-based firm intends to sell up to $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to investors and is seeking approximately $2 billion in financing support from NVIDIA. The sources added that Third Point, led by Daniel Loeb, will lead the convertible bond investment, while Goldman Sachs is involved in arranging the financing. Following this funding round, Nscale plans to proceed with its initial public offering (IPO); prior reports have indicated the IPO could raise around $3 billion. Nscale told investors its total contract value is approximately $10.3 billion, including a $45 billion computing capacity supply agreement with Anthropic. The company projects future annual revenue of about $18.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of roughly $13.6 billion, but emphasized these figures are illustrative estimates only and not official guidance. Nscale is constructing a large data center campus in Norway for Microsoft and has a major project in West Virginia, U.S. To date, the firm has procured around 194,000 NVIDIA Vera Rubin GPUs.

After Apple’s new CEO John Ternus officially took office, the company has entered a new product cycle. According to market sources, Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 18 series next week, with the iPhone 18 Pro likely to get new color options including a deep cherry hue. Given that September 11 marks the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Apple may adjust the pre-order launch time to the early morning of September 12. Meanwhile, Apple’s first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Ultra, is still reportedly on track to launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, but due to new manufacturing processes and structural design, initial supplies may be limited, and users could face longer shipping wait times. For Mac products, market research firm Omdia revealed that Apple is adjusting its future MacBook lineup plans. The higher-end positioned "MacBook Ultra" may feature an OLED screen, come in 14-inch and 16-inch variants, and could launch as early as the second half of 2026 to early 2027. In addition, Apple is not expected to discontinue the existing mini-LED version of the MacBook Pro immediately, and the two screen variants may be sold in parallel for several years. On the other hand, Apple is further advancing the phase-out of Intel-based Macs. The company has allowed universal apps on the Mac App Store that require macOS 13 or later to drop support for Intel-based Macs, in order to reduce app size and streamline development processes.

The U.S. National Sheriffs' Association (NSA) has announced it is withdrawing its opposition to the cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), and shifting to a neutral stance. In a letter to U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the NSA noted that given extensive work by Congress, the administration, and industry stakeholders on the legal, regulatory, and enforcement issues addressed by the bill, the organization has decided to "step back and let the legislative process move forward" to build a clear, effective, and urgently needed regulatory framework. Previously, the NSA had opposed certain provisions in the bill related to exemptions for cryptocurrency mixers, arguing that such rules could undermine law enforcement’s ability to track on-chain transactions and recover funds for victims, and had criticized the CLARITY Act for "protecting the crypto industry rather than the public." Currently, the U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. While the bill has advanced in the Senate Agriculture Committee and Banking Committee, contentious issues remain, including stablecoin rewards, tokenized stocks, and potential conflicts of interest involving the Trump family.

Late August’s crypto market rebound has driven enterprises to increase their crypto asset allocations. As Bitcoin’s price rose, Bitcoin mining firms that had previously pivoted aggressively to AI businesses have reemerged as high-beta plays in BTC’s market, while corporate balance sheet strategies involving direct Bitcoin holdings have once again drawn market attention. Data shows Bitcoin climbed around 23% in late August, with some mining stocks surging 41% to 67%—outperforming multiple AI infrastructure companies. The market attributes the rally to three key factors: the U.S. Treasury expanding Treasury repurchase operations, the White House issuing positive signals on crypto regulation, and over $1.6 billion in short positions being liquidated. In terms of corporate buying activity, Strive purchased 1,800 BTC in the final week of August for roughly $143 million, lifting its total holdings to 23,156 BTC and making it the fifth-largest public company holder of Bitcoin. Strategy added 4,603 BTC over the same period, bringing its total holdings to more than 845,000 BTC. Separately, 21 major financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup plan to set up a new entity and launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, with plans to expand to other G7 currencies for cross-border payments and digital asset settlements. For Ethereum, Bitmine has been accumulating ETH for 65 consecutive weeks, with its latest position exceeding 5.9 million ETH—accounting for 4.9% of Ethereum’s roughly 120.7 million circulating supply, just short of its 5% holding target. Despite the ongoing accumulation, the company’s current ETH holdings still carry approximately $5.1 billion in unrealized losses.

Uniswap co-founder Hayden Adams has joined the debate between AMC CEO and Robinhood over the legalization of tokenized stocks. Adams noted that the AMC CEO is hearing about tokenized stocks for the first time and is attempting over-enforcement, adding that tokenized stocks were carefully structured in a legal manner by former SEC commissioners.