Serenity: SIVE has solid fundamentals but an incorrect positioning, and should be regarded as a next-generation global high-growth laser optics company.

After SIVE’s earnings report, Serenity published an article systematically outlining its bullish thesis on the scaling of optical interconnects and co-packaged optics (CPO) between 2027 and 2028. Pluggable module segment: JBL has confirmed 1.6T LRO, with orders placed in H1 2027 and ramp-up in H2, potentially serving multiple hyperscalers. Three other module manufacturers are evaluating the opportunity, while three more are conducting supply assessments. Reference design segment: GlobalFoundries’ SCALE has confirmed potential CPO customers including AMD and other hyperscalers. External light source and optical engine segment: POET, O-Net, and SemiNex are confirmed players, while AEVA is a potential match. For 2028 Optical I/O: Ayar Labs has confirmed potential integrations with AMD, Alchip, hyperscaler ASICs, and NVIDIA NVLink. Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and Lightelligence are listed as potential customers. The same period may also see TFLN-related projects such as Apple’s next-generation wearables. Serenity cites Goldman Sachs data showing the total addressable market for CPO will grow from near zero to roughly $91 billion by 2028. Morgan Stanley has named Sivers, LITE, and COHR as key laser suppliers for CPO. But Serenity’s criticism of SIVE is equally sharp: the company has not clearly communicated the economic scale of the 2027-2028 optical scaling cycle to Western and U.S. institutions. SIVE should position itself as a next-generation, high-growth global laser optics company targeting hyperscalers, rather than framing its narrative around backward-looking metrics like "current small revenue and ongoing losses". SIVE should be viewed as a high-elasticity play in the 1.6T and CPO optical transition cycle between 2027 and 2028.