Whale Tracking: Amid renewed US-Iran clashes, smart money flipped to go long on 5.5 million barrels of crude oil, while ramping up positions on "invasion of Iran" prediction shares.

According to monitoring by TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), U.S. forces struck two rocket launch sites on Iran’s Larak Island overnight, a development that sent international oil prices soaring in a gap-up move. WTI crude oil contracts (CL) on Hyperliquid are currently trading at $85.45, up roughly 3.2% in 24 hours. Geopolitical conflict-focused trader xm39, who has been closely tracked, adjusted positions in both crude oil and prediction markets amid this price swing. Between 7:32 and 8:00 AM today, its associated address added roughly 28,400 WTI short contracts against the market trend, with a transaction value of around $2.401 million. As oil prices continued to rise, the address closed out all 107,400 short contracts at 9:01 AM, with an average closing price of ~$84.86, booking a realized loss of approximately $131,500. Just about 10 minutes later, it flipped its trading direction from short to long. The address then sequentially bought roughly 64,700 WTI contracts, and currently holds a long position of ~$5.531 million at 20x full leverage, with an unrealized profit of ~$18,200, a margin return rate of around 6.6%, and a liquidation price of ~$64.88. Meanwhile, xm39 also continued to increase its geopolitical conflict bets on Polymarket. Between 7:43 and 7:51 AM today, it purchased a total of 274,500 Yes shares for the market question “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027” in three separate trades, executed at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16% respectively, for a total investment of ~$41,700. This round of purchases expanded its position in this prediction market by roughly 74.7%. Currently, xm39 holds a total of 642,300 Yes shares, with an accumulated cost of ~$127,100, at an average entry probability of 19.79%; the current market probability for the question is ~15.5%, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $27,600.