Whale Tracking: Following oil prices' sharp rally, smart money is doubling down on extreme bets, still expecting crude oil to break $100 and taking 50x leveraged short positions on the S&P 500.

According to monitoring by TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), as WTI crude oil rallied sharply overnight, Polymarket trader "tetrose" continued adding to its tail bets that WTI would hit $90, $95, and $100 before the end of August. Between 3:35 AM and 4:07 AM on August 31—during the crude oil rally—it completed six consecutive buy orders, adding roughly $3,182 in total. At execution, the implied market probabilities for the $90, $95, and $100 targets were approximately 3.63%, 1.50%, and 0.70% respectively; current probabilities stand at 4.5%, 1.6%, and 0.5%. tetrose’s total cost for its three Yes positions is around $38,900, while their current value is only about $8,291, translating to an overall unrealized loss of roughly $30,600, or 78.7%. The $95 position alone has an unrealized loss of approximately $26,900. Following the oil price rise, this morning, an address linked to tetrose took profit on 5,349.14 long Brent crude contracts, then placed a buy order for 3,618.13 contracts at $88.7, planning to re-open long positions if prices pull back, with a total value of about $320,900. The order was not filled due to crude oil’s continued rally and was canceled at 1:22 PM. Meanwhile, its short S&P position opened on August 28 remains fully intact. The address is currently shorting 274.773 SP500 contracts with 50x full leverage, holding a position worth roughly $2.113 million, an average entry price of 7759.6 points, and an unrealized profit of around $19,200. It has set a take-profit order covering the entire position at 7600 points. Historical records show "tetrose" has 274 settled positions tied to crude oil prices and geopolitical themes including Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, with 150 profitable and 124 losing trades, a win rate of about 54.7%, and cumulative net profit of approximately $641,900.