Serenity: If Celestial lists independently, its valuation could reach $6 billion to $10 billion thanks to the potential of its CPO business.

Serenity posted on social media that if Celestial (which has since been acquired by Marvell) had remained an independent company and listed in the U.S. market at the time, its valuation could have reached $6 billion to $10 billion. Serenity noted that Celestial had previously projected its revenue would hit $5 billion in 2028 (annualized based on the fourth quarter) and climb to $10 billion in 2029, adding that the firm is a core participant in co-packaged optics (CPO) projects for hyperscale cloud providers. By comparison, Celestial’s revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was nearly zero. Marvell has stated that the unit’s revenue and profit contribution post-acquisition was “not material”, with a quarterly loss of roughly $12.5 million, translating to an annualized loss of about $50 million. Serenity argued that judging Celestial solely by its current quarter price-to-sales (P/S) ratio and $12.5 million quarterly loss could label it a “worthless meme stock”; however, factoring in its qualification cycle and potential hyperscale cloud CPO project opportunities in 2028, its fair valuation should range from $6 billion to $10 billion. Serenity further pointed out that how to evaluate hard tech companies still in the early stages of customer qualification and commercialization highlights a core divergence between U.S. and European markets and cultures. It holds that for such firms, future revenue potential from large-scale commercialization and progress in customer qualification are far more worthy of attention than current quarterly revenue and losses.