US stocks open September with a dismal start: Oil prices and US Treasury yields rise in tandem, weighing on high-risk assets.

On the first trading day of September, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower across the board: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.64%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.71%, the Nasdaq slid 1.31%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once plunged more than 3%. Intel and Qualcomm declined nearly 3%, AMD and Meta fell over 2%, while Tesla, Alibaba, and Nvidia dropped nearly 2%. The core factor pressuring the market is the simultaneous rise in oil prices and global bond yields. Brent crude oil broke above $92 per barrel during the session; market concerns over Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to push up energy prices and inflation, further strengthening expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Currently, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September to a range of 3.75%-4.00% has risen to 66%. Paul Ciana, technical strategist at Bank of America, stated the S&P 500’s upward breakout starting in August remains intact, provided it holds above 7,500 points. Meanwhile, neither the RSI nor MACD has confirmed the recent price highs, indicating upward momentum is weakening. Ciana noted seasonal headwinds, election uncertainty, and rising front-end U.S. Treasury yields are posing greater challenges to the market, with higher yields increasing the risk that stocks will enter a consolidation phase rather than rallying at an accelerated pace. Matt Maley, strategist at Miller Tabak, also warned the stock market has so far been able to ignore rising yields, but this does not mean the pressure from high yields will not eventually surface. JPMorgan Chase, meanwhile, argues rising yields may not be an insurmountable obstacle for the bull market, as they could reflect stronger economic activity momentum.