SpaceX's stock has climbed back above its IPO price, as Wall Street steps up institutional positioning.
43 minutes ago
SpaceX’s share price has rebounded back to its IPO price of $135. Earlier, the market had feared a mass sell-off by employees and early investors once the lock-up period expired, but no large-scale dumping materialized, and the stock instead climbed higher. SpaceX’s early post-IPO rally was partly fueled by its "scarcity value", but as more shares become available over time, the market’s focus has shifted from "whether the stock is scarce" to "who will keep absorbing the supply". The first major lock-up release unlocked roughly 912 million shares, and an additional ~3 billion shares are expected to become tradable by the end of this year. Meanwhile, Wall Street is accelerating the integration of SpaceX into institutional investment frameworks. Multiple banks have released price targets after the quiet period, with a median of ~$225, ranging from $190 to $800: Goldman Sachs at ~$205, JPMorgan at ~$225, and Morgan Stanley at ~$300. As analyst coverage, valuation models, liquidity, and potential index inclusion gradually mature, SpaceX is evolving from a "scarce asset" to a standard security that institutional investors must compare with holdings like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google during portfolio allocation. However, SpaceX’s current valuation already factors in expectations of rapid future growth for its core businesses: Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As share supply grows, the "scarcity premium" will gradually weaken, and the stock’s ability to keep rising will depend more on the delivery of fundamentals and whether institutional capital can continue absorbing the new supply.
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