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Analysis: Bitcoin Poised for a Golden Cross, Decline in USDT's Dominance Signals Rising Risk Appetite

2026.09.03 15:27:28

Bitcoin is currently approaching the formation of a "golden cross" technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. This indicator is widely regarded by the market as a signal of a long-term uptrend. While its historical performance does not accurately predict market movements every time, this golden cross may receive further support from USDT’s declining market dominance. Bitcoin has seen a total of 12 golden crosses in its history, with several periods delivering significant rallies. Statistics show that among the 9 measurable golden crosses, the average 3-month gain is roughly 24.9%; cases where the cross holds for a full year without being invalidated by a "death cross" are rare, but the average 1-year gain of the previous 3 such instances reached 250%. Meanwhile, USDT’s market dominance is approaching a "death cross"—its 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average. The market typically views a decline in USDT’s market share as a sign of rising risk appetite, meaning funds may flow from stablecoins to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Currently, Bitcoin’s golden cross and the signal of falling USDT dominance are emerging simultaneously, indicating recent market momentum is strengthening and risk asset allocation sentiment may be improving.

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