Bitcoin is once again exhibiting characteristics of an "amplified version of gold", though the four-year cycle theory warns that the market still faces downside risks ahead.

Bitcoin has recently re-emerged as a safe-haven asset, hitting a four-month high of $82,262 this week before pulling back to around $79,800. André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said that amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and currency devaluation risks, investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin less as a high-risk tech asset and more as a store of value. Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s 90-day price correlation with gold is near its highest level in six years. He argued that as macro forces strengthen and currency devaluation risks rise, investors are blurring the lines between Bitcoin and gold, with the cryptocurrency recently acting as an “amplified version of gold”. However, the four-year cycle theory remains a headwind for Bitcoin’s outlook. The theory links Bitcoin’s bull-bear cycles to its halving events. Fidelity projects that if historical cycle patterns hold, Bitcoin’s next bear market bottom could land around November 2026. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, previously estimated that the baseline scenario for this correction would bottom in the $40,000 to $46,000 range. Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, argued that the four-year cycle is not an exact timing rule, meaning it does not guarantee Bitcoin will decline later this year, and a long-term perspective and holding period have historically been more beneficial for investors.