Serenity: Storage prices and supply-demand structures remain tight; short-term gains do not mean bottlenecks have been overcome.
1 hours ago
Serenity issued a reminder that the fundamental driver of the storage shortage has not changed, and may even grow more acute. The market rotates between different bottleneck sectors, but the companies themselves remain unchanged—what shifts are valuations and market narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence that the storage supply-demand gap could be wider than market expectations: Nikkei reported Japanese distributors saying the storage demand gap has hit 40% to 60%, with prices potentially rising another ~50% by year-end; SpaceX’s capital expenditure, excluded from the ~$1.3 trillion total for hyperscale cloud providers, may push overall spending beyond projections; SanDisk’s 80% gross margin is expected to hold through 2030; and order visibility for Samsung and other firms has extended to 2031. Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are highly volatile, with some of its positions boasting over 270% in unrealized gains, making them easier to hold. However, a company’s operating fundamentals often do not align with short-term stock prices. The same logic applies to other bottleneck segments such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates. After stock price rebounds, investors should not assume the shortage is over. Storage prices and supply-demand structures remain tight, while market sentiment and valuation narratives are rotating rapidly.
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