Analysis: Bitcoin's on-chain realized market capitalization returns to growth, with its price recovery backed by fundamentals.

BTC.TOP Mining Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer posted that he previously opened a short position on Bitcoin (BTC) at $82,050, has now closed the position to take profit at $79,480, and is back to holding a full spot position in Ethereum (ETH) awaiting gains. His reasoning includes: ETH, the engine of this bull market, has recently led gains and is approaching its previous high, which may drive BTC higher; he only took short positions during the continuous net inflow of ETFs (a record $730 million single-day net inflow on September 3). If BTC rises to the $83,000-$84,000 range, he will repeat his short strategy, judging this resistance level will be hard to break in the short term. Jiang added he is still waiting for a major pullback. If BTC drops to the $71,255-$73,361 range (the Fibonacci 50% to 61.8% retracement level), he will buy back all positions; otherwise, he will repurchase as planned by the end of October. He also referenced two previous accurate top-hitting operations: shorting ETH at $2,525 on August 22 and shorting BTC at $82,050 on September 4, and believes the current trading logic of using no leverage and full-position trading is effective.

Serenity noted that its earlier revenue projections based on Sivers (SIVE)'s annual target of 100 million CW DFB lasers were merely illustrative models. The key driver behind its optimism for laser companies is that these firms are not confined to a single laser product, and can further expand into other segments of data center optical communications. Taking Lumentum (LITE) as an example, Serenity pointed out that after Lumentum acquired Cloud Light (specializing in pluggable optical modules), it expanded its potential data center service market to over five times its previous size. Lumentum’s OFC presentation materials also show that its ELS business, based on UHP laser chips, can deliver approximately double the total addressable market (TAM) expansion opportunity. He added that a single UHP laser wafer fab’s laser business is projected to generate around $5 billion in annual revenue once production capacity ramps up. Coupled with AAOI’s data that CPO lasers carry a gross profit margin of 55%-65%, lasers already boast strong profitability. Serenity believes that even as the industry continues to expand production, the laser market may still face a supply-demand gap. Moreover, with overlapping technological cycles including NPO, CPO, and 1.6T pluggable optical modules, laser manufacturers are poised to enter new product markets continuously. Therefore, compared to companies that remain stuck in a single supply chain tier long-term, Serenity argues the market should assign higher valuation premiums to laser enterprises.

Beating AI News Flash: Tencent’s Hunyuan and WorkBuddy have completed a round of targeted optimizations for Hy4 preview, which is now fully rolled out across WorkBuddy. According to the official, the optimization primarily addresses long reasoning and excessive self-verification in complex tasks, significantly cutting task rounds and input/output token consumption without sacrificing task performance. Hy4 preview is Tencent’s open-source flagship Mixture of Experts (MoE) model launched in late August, boasting 770B total parameters, 49B activated parameters, and support for a 1M context window, with a focus on long-tasks such as coding, office work, and scientific research. Notably, Tencent had already flagged "long reasoning in complex tasks and excessive self-verification" as known issues when releasing Hy4.

CryptoQuant community author CW8900 published an analysis noting that Bitcoin (BTC) spot demand has turned increasingly negative, while futures demand has also seen a slight decline. The current market rally is primarily driven by futures demand, while spot demand remains in negative territory — a concerning sign, as a sustained uptrend cannot be maintained without spot demand. Despite BTC’s price rebound, the volume of spot BTC outflows has risen further; if this trend persists, the current upward momentum could be derailed. Therefore, it is critical to determine the specific reasons behind the negative spot demand. From a position structure perspective, holdings by large holders continue to increase, while retail investor holdings keep declining. CW8900 believes that retail investors have continued selling even during BTC’s price rally, likely having adjusted to the previous downturn and opting to take profits or reduce positions during rebounds. Currently, BTC’s negative spot demand is mainly driven by sustained retail selling, while a notable point is that large investors remain net buyers.

On-chain analyst MLM publicly announced that he is assembling a team to target Loracle, the largest PONS short seller on Hyperliquid, and invited users with large capital who wish to participate to contact him via private message. He later noted that those with seven-figure capital can reach out via private communication, and has so far secured eight-figure capital commitments. According to TradingBeats monitoring, the address starting with 0xefe4, labeled as a "Loracle sub-address", currently holds approximately 25.1892 million PONS short positions, with a position value of around $21.0961 million, using 3x leverage, accounting for roughly 19.1% of Hyperliquid’s total PONS open interest. The average entry price of this address is approximately $0.6562, with PONS currently trading at $0.8374, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $4.5655 million. The liquidation price for PONS on this address is roughly $1.8288; without additional margin, PONS would need to rise by around 118.4% from its current level to trigger liquidation.

According to official announcements, Binance announced that its bStocks product has surpassed $30 billion in cumulative trading volume in the nearly three months since its launch on June 11. Currently, Binance offers 24/7 trading, covering over 7,000 popular assets including stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies, and supports trading methods such as long and short positions, providing global users with a more flexible channel to trade stocks and other traditional financial assets. This growth also reflects that as traditional financial assets gradually enter on-chain trading scenarios, market attention toward new trading formats like stock tokens is steadily rising.