Wall Street bets the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike has risen to nearly 60%, while the White House is stepping up pressure on Warsh to cut interest rates.
48 minutes ago
Against the backdrop of strong U.S. August jobs data, Wall Street’s expectations for a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve have risen. CME FedWatch data shows the market currently assigns a 58.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% at its September FOMC meeting. The data indicates U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and markets are concerned that supply shocks including the Middle East situation, rising oil prices, and tariffs could continue to drive inflation higher. Institutions such as Macquarie, Bank of America, and UBS have all raised their outlooks for subsequent interest rate hikes. On the other hand, the Trump administration continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Trump recently stated that the Fed should lower interest rates, noting that high rates are putting the U.S. at a disadvantage. Vice President Vance also said that cutting rates would help improve U.S. housing affordability. As the market shifts to pricing in rate hikes, the Fed led by Wash faces dual pressure from the White House and market expectations.
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