Bitcoin faces CPI and PPI tests this week, with market bets pushing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 58.4%.

Bitcoin is facing multiple key macroeconomic events this week. The U.S. August PPI and CPI data will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively, while the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. CME FedWatch data shows the market currently assigns a 58.4% probability to the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% range. Meanwhile, Japan’s record foreign exchange intervention and potential U.S. Treasury bond sales have also become a market focus. Japan’s foreign exchange reserves have decreased by approximately $79.57 billion since the end of July, leading markets to believe Japan may sell U.S. Treasuries to fund yen interventions. Polymarket data shows the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points in September has now reached 98%. Fluctuations in the yen and carry trades could further impact global liquidity and crypto markets. On-chain data from CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin’s recent rally has been driven primarily by the futures market, with no corresponding confirmation from spot demand. Derivatives open interest rose by approximately $2.3 billion in a single day to $27.53 billion, while spot demand remains negative, casting doubt on the sustainability of the current rally. Technically, Bitcoin closed above $80,000 on its weekly chart for the first time in several months this week, though strong selling pressure remains near the $80,000 level. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s weekly Supertrend indicator flipped to a "buy" signal for the first time since November 2025, a similar signal that emerged after the bear market bottomed in early 2023.