The U.S. midterm elections could become a de facto referendum on Trump’s administration, with the Republican Party currently facing fierce competition in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

With less than two months remaining until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, President Trump’s approval rating and governing performance have become key variables determining whether the Republican Party can retain its congressional majority. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump’s net disapproval rating is nearly double what it was at the same time in 2018, with voters broadly dissatisfied with the economic situation and the Iran conflict, and Democratic voters are currently more enthusiastic about voting than Republican voters. The Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives. If the Democrats regain control of the House, they will be able to launch investigations into the Trump administration and force the White House to seek compromises on most legislative issues. In the Senate, Democrats need to seize four seats from the Republicans to win a majority, but the current electoral map is unfavorable to them. Independent analysts note that only nine of the 35 Senate races are competitive. Even if the Democrats win in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina, they would still need to take at least two more seats from Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas—states where Trump secured double-digit margins in 2024. The Republicans still hold advantages in redistricting and fundraising: the new House district maps could help the party gain a net of up to 10 seats, and Trump’s super PAC currently has a $400 million war chest. However, the cost of living remains a major test, with energy costs, tariffs, and trade conflicts affecting voters in multiple key states. Election experts argue that midterm elections are typically seen as a "referendum" on the sitting president, and whether Trump can reignite enthusiasm among Republican voters will be the key.