China and the U.S. are currently in consultations on a framework for reciprocal tariff cuts totaling $30 billion.

Beating AI News Flash: Anthropic has released an economic study simulating how AI could impact the U.S. economy by 2030. The study first sets parameters including how many jobs AI can perform and the rate of enterprise adoption, then calculates corresponding GDP, wages, and unemployment rates. In the most aggressive scenario, AI would affect approximately 30% of all economic tasks. U.S. GDP would be 32.4% higher than it would be without AI, but the unemployment rate for knowledge workers would rise to 17.9%, while the overall unemployment rate would reach 11.9%. Wages for knowledge workers would also drop by 11.5%. Changes in income distribution are also significant: the share of labor income would fall from 60% to 45.2%, while capital income would rise to 54.8%. Although the economy would expand by nearly one-third, total labor income would only increase by 0.5%, whereas capital income would surge by 81.4%. However, under a set of less aggressive assumptions, the results would be far more moderate. Typical responses from U.S. public surveys align more closely with the middle scenario, projecting GDP to be around 10% higher by 2030 than it would be without AI, with an overall unemployment rate of approximately 5%.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Board member Masu Kazuyuki said Thursday that Japan is no longer in deflation, and the central bank must resolve its negative real interest rate issue as soon as possible while further raising policy rates. He warned that if underlying inflation significantly exceeds 2%, the BOJ may need to accelerate its pace of rate hikes. Markets are widely expecting the BOJ to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at next week’s policy meeting, with some traders even betting the central bank will signal another hike in October. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously said he is "quite familiar" with the BOJ’s next moves, further boosting market expectations for a Japanese rate hike. Meanwhile, the yen has rebounded from a July low near 164 to around 153.5, hitting a six-month high. Stefan Angrick, Moody’s Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, noted that Masu Kazuyuki’s hawkish comments are another sign the BOJ is moving toward rate hikes, and expects the central bank may lift its rate hike frequency to once every three months going forward. In the bond market, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has topped 3%, hitting a roughly 30-year high, as markets accelerate a reassessment of the asset pricing impacts from Japan’s monetary policy normalization.

QCP released its September 10 macro theme report, noting the yen has recently rallied sharply from near 160 to around 154, driven primarily by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy normalization, carry trade unwinding, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Japan’s August foreign exchange reserves fell by $87.8 billion, with securities holdings declining by the same amount—likely tied to yen intervention funding arrangements, leaving the market on guard for further intervention risks. On inflation, QCP attributes this spring’s PCE inflation surge mainly to energy prices. From February to May, non-durable goods contributed roughly 0.85 percentage points to core PCE year-over-year growth, while energy alone accounted for about 0.89 percentage points; by July, energy’s contribution had dropped to 0.48 percentage points. Still, core PCE remains at 3.3%, meaning falling energy prices have not fully eased the Federal Reserve’s concerns over broad inflationary pressures. The labor market retains resilience: U.S. August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far outpacing market expectations, with a combined downward revision of 55,000 jobs for June and July; the three-month average monthly job gain stands at around 71,000. QCP holds that the labor market has not shown clear signs of stalling, supporting the "soft landing" narrative, though household financing costs stay elevated. Meanwhile, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz leave the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at just ~286.6 million barrels, near historical lows, meaning inflation risks from energy supply shocks remain persistent. Brent crude has recently rebounded above $100 per barrel. QCP poses a key question: If employment continues to hold resilient and inflation is driven mainly by energy, can the Federal Reserve keep policy rates on hold for the rest of the year? Should core inflation stay stubborn, expectations of policy tightening could heat up again.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), crypto-related stocks in pre-market trading on US equities are broadly lower, with: MSTR down 0.66%, CRCL down 1.19%, COIN down 0.46%, BMNR down 0.41%, SBET down 0.12%, HOOD down 0.62%, and PURR down 1.58%.

Apple officially launches its first foldable iPhone, the Duo, pushing the iPhone’s price ceiling to $1,999 and sparking market debate over whether the high-end foldable will become Apple’s new growth engine or end up as a niche premium product. Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, has sharply raised his projections for the Duo, forecasting it will double its contribution to iPhone revenue from 5% to 10% in Apple’s 2027 fiscal year, calling the device Apple’s most important new product since AirPods in 2016. He believes that if roughly one-third of Pro Max users switch to the Duo, the device could drive a 5% rise in iPhone revenue and around a 2.5% increase in Apple’s total revenue. But Wall Street’s stance is notably cautious. Morningstar expects the Duo to lift the iPhone’s average selling price, but forecasts iPhone sales will remain largely flat in fiscal 2027, while rising storage costs could pressure Apple’s gross margin. Jefferies, meanwhile, maintains an “underperform” rating, arguing that the Duo’s 256GB base model suggests Apple is prioritizing volume over per-unit profit. A bigger challenge lies in market size: foldable phones currently account for just around 2% of global smartphone sales, and FDM CCS Insight projects that figure will rise to only about 4% over the next decade. Forrester therefore warns that the Duo could become a high-end niche product like the Vision Pro, or carve out its own market like the Apple Watch, but whether it can reach meaningful scale remains to be seen. The Duo is priced at $1,999, with the top-tier 2TB model costing up to $3,199; pre-orders open on October 16, with a launch date of October 23. Apple has also raised the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro to $1,199. For new CEO John Ternus, whether the Duo becomes the next growth engine for the iPhone will also be his first major test in the role.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran on September 9 (local time) not to conduct further activities at the suspected nuclear site dubbed "Pickaxe Mountain," threatening a "very fierce" U.S. strike if it does. Trump said the U.S. has observed "activities" at the site recently. A new satellite image analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows road activity at Pickaxe Mountain has reached an all-time high this year, with construction work rising significantly, and the site may have shifted from underground excavation to internal construction and perimeter reinforcement. The site is located just about 2 kilometers from the heavily damaged Natanz nuclear facility, though CSIS has not confirmed whether Iran has moved nuclear equipment such as centrifuges there. Meanwhile, attacks between the U.S. and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. Iran claimed to have launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and targeted 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. Central Command said it had previously destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to two ballistic missile attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on U.S. warships. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil shipments, and the string of attacks has stoked market fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude briefly topped $100 per barrel, and is currently trading at $99.19. Trump also said a U.S.-Iran war may not end until after the November midterm elections, adding that Iran "cannot hold on much longer."