Bitcoin's 'golden cross' emerged only to fail immediately, as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations rise to 86%
2026.09.12 12:26:27
Bitcoin's daily chart "golden cross" only held briefly before failing again. On September 12, BTC briefly rose to $79,837, pushing the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) above the 200-day EMA, but later pulled back to around $77,438, with the 50-day EMA falling back below the 200-day EMA. This move coincided with a sharp rise in expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Latest data shows the U.S. core CPI month-over-month came in at 0.3%, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%; CME FedWatch data indicates the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points next week has climbed to 86.5% from roughly 69% following the CPI release. The market’s repricing of rate hikes put pressure on risk assets, leading Bitcoin to give up its earlier gains. However, Bitcoin’s medium-term trend has not fully turned bearish. The 4-hour timeframe’s 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, so the golden cross still holds; the daily Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 45, signaling the overall trend remains strong. Meanwhile, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 43.3, with short-term momentum cooling significantly.
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