Arthur Hayes: The AI-first endgame will inevitably lead to liquidity release, with risk assets set to benefit.

The US currently has approximately $7 trillion in short-term Treasury securities outstanding, with around $6.1 trillion set to mature within one year. Including other maturing Treasury instruments, roughly $7.5 trillion in tradable US government debt will need refinancing in 2026, while another $4 trillion and $3.5 trillion will mature in 2027 and 2028 respectively. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by an additional 75 basis points, annual interest expenses on short-term Treasuries alone could rise by about $50 billion, equivalent to 0.15% of GDP. Additionally, most of these Treasuries will be refinanced at market rates higher than their original issuance rates, meaning the US is facing a round of far more expensive large-scale refinancing.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that any gap in AI computing power demand will ultimately be covered by money printing. The current so-called "AI safety first" framework essentially boils down to two paths: The first is that the U.S. government steps in, taking over the roles of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX as the primary buyer of computing power, and sustaining data center and chip orders. The second is that these buyers vanish, triggering a collapse in AI-linked debts—with insurance companies bearing the initial brunt, and if they cannot absorb the losses, the Federal Reserve will step in to bail them out via money printing. Hayes concludes that either path results in money printing: whether through fiscal or monetary channels, liquidity will be unleashed, and risk assets will ultimately benefit.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin has not hit a new all-time high in nearly a year. As of now, it has been roughly 342 days since the last all-time high, approaching a full year. In previous cycles, Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high shortly after a halving, but this cycle’s pace has slowed. The next halving is expected around April 2028. Additionally, the interval between the previous cycle’s peak and the next all-time high has been shrinking: 1,180 days between 2014–2017, 1,094 days between 2017–2020, and 849 days between 2021–2024. Based on this trend, Darkfost inferred that if the shortening trend continues, even though Bitcoin has taken a year to break its prior all-time high this cycle, the new high may arrive faster than in previous cycles—there is no need to wait until 2028 under the old template of hitting a new high immediately after a halving. The cycle template is becoming less relevant, but the interval between new highs is shrinking and a new high is inevitable.

According to GMGN market data, the Chinese Meme coin Lobster saw its market cap briefly surge past $180 million today, hitting an all-time high. It has a 24-hour price increase of 12.7%, with a current market cap of $146 million and 24-hour trading volume of $16.3 million. BlockBeats reminds users that related tokens are highly volatile, so investors should exercise caution.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said, "Trump and I both see no reason to raise interest rates, and it’s important for the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo ahead of the election. Trump fully respects Kevin Warsh’s independence."

Next week, global markets will enter a central bank "super week". The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision and economic projections summary in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, followed by a monetary policy press conference from Fed Chair Walsh. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan will also announce their respective rate decisions on Thursday and Friday respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (officially the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act) on Tuesday local time, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will host a roundtable meeting the same day to discuss 24-hour crypto trading. Below is a breakdown of key upcoming events: - Tuesday: Key procedural vote on the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act); weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ended August 29; September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. - Wednesday: Weekly API crude oil inventory for the week ended September 11; U.S. August retail sales month-over-month rate, U.S. August import price index month-over-month rate, September NAHB Housing Market Index; U.S. July business inventories month-over-month rate; weekly EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended September 11. - Thursday: FOMC announces interest rate decision (2 a.m. Beijing time Thursday) and economic projections summary; Fed Chair holds monetary policy press conference; weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended September 12; Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; SEC roundtable on 24-hour trading. - Friday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds monetary policy press conference.