Analysis: Bitcoin’s price has diverged from its demand, with ETF inflows and coin hoarding via transfers out of trading platforms acting as short-term support.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes that while Bitcoin’s price is rising, sustained buying pressure has yet to reestablish, leaving mixed market signals. As of the 30th, cumulative spot demand stood at -180,000 BTC, remaining negative; futures demand was +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly down. Total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still in negative territory overall. A recent divergence has emerged between price and total demand: Bitcoin’s price is up, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating the rally is driven more by easing selling pressure than strong buying. Breaking down by segment, demand recovery is uneven. For institutional players, while geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable, the volume-weighted Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, signaling U.S. spot prices occasionally trade at a premium to other markets, with institutional selling pressure easing notably. ETFs have been the biggest change in this cycle: demand has flipped completely compared to this summer, with recent net purchases of roughly 70,000 BTC. Cumulative inflows for 2026 still stand at around -17,000 BTC, but are close to turning positive. For trading platforms, net outflows dominated throughout September, a trend pointing to accumulation rather than distribution—Bitcoin leaving exchanges typically translates to lower near-term selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost concludes that the current price rally is not driven by stronger buying, but rather by investors refraining from adding more selling pressure at higher price levels, leaving the market structure still fragile.