Gold drops below $4,300; TD Securities and BMO still forecast it will hit $5,000 by 2027.
47 minutes ago
Gold recently fell below $4,300 per ounce, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve’s resumption of interest rate hikes. However, both TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets hold that gold’s medium- and long-term demand remains resilient, projecting that gold prices will retake the $5,000 mark by 2027. Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, noted that the traditional inverse correlation between gold and real interest rates is weakening, while geopolitical risks, de-dollarization, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and currency devaluation risks may continue to underpin gold demand. TD Securities projects gold will break through $5,000 again in 2027. In terms of capital flows, the firm estimates global gold ETFs have added roughly 6.3 million ounces in holdings since July, with central banks purchasing nearly 70 tons of gold monthly on a three-month moving average basis. The institution believes that if investment demand continues to recover, the gold market still has room to absorb additional capital. BMO also pointed out that global physical gold demand is improving, supported by India’s wedding season, Chinese gold imports, and inflows into gold ETFs. Over the past week, global gold ETFs attracted about $4.2 billion in inflows; China’s net non-monetary gold imports rose 48% year-on-year to 124.5 tons in August. BMO said gold’s ability to hold near $4,300–$4,400 amid concurrent rises in the U.S. dollar and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields shows that its traditional correlation with bond yields is weakening. The bank projects gold will retake $5,000 in the first quarter of 2027, but short-term focus remains on China-U.S. talks and U.S. core PCE inflation data.
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