Analyst: Bitcoin market momentum has shifted, marking the 5th time in history a bull market confirmation signal has emerged.
2026.09.24 14:09:46
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base has confirmed crossing above that of Active Long-Term Holders (LTH), signaling a shift in market momentum, leading him to conclude that Bitcoin’s bull market has been confirmed. This marks the 5th occurrence of this signal in history, though he stressed the relevant indicator still carries a risk of misjudgment. "Active LTH" is defined as long-term held Bitcoin that has moved at least once in the past seven years, to exclude long-term dormant or non-circulating BTC. Currently, over 3.5 million BTC held for more than 10 years remain dormant, with this supply growing by an average of 8,000 to 30,000 BTC monthly. Since 2019, this indicator has only recorded one instance of negative growth, triggered by an early miner reactivating and transferring roughly 100,000 BTC—a relatively isolated event. Darkfost argues the current signal reflects positive shifts in the Bitcoin market, with ETF liquidity inflows serving as one of the driving factors.
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