Bloomberg: Global bond market undergoes structural shift, long-term bond yields rise to multi-decade highs.
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Bloomberg columnist John Authers says the "tectonic plates" of the global economy are shifting, with long-term government bond yields in major economies rising to multi-decade highs. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has hit a 30-plus year high, while government borrowing costs in major markets like the U.S. have also climbed to levels not seen since before the global financial crisis. However, the current rise in bond yields has not yet significantly impacted stock markets or the real economy, with the Nasdaq 100 index hitting a new all-time high this week. The article attributes the recent sharp volatility in the bond market more to recent economic data that has consistently come in stronger than expected, and to Federal Reserve Chair Walsh adopting a more hawkish policy stance than markets had previously anticipated. Markets currently expect the U.S. overnight rate to reach 4.75% in a year, compared to a prior forecast of a drop to 3% before the outbreak of the Iran war. Authers notes that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holds around 5%, the higher risk-free rate will make bonds more attractive relative to stocks and benefit the management of long-term funds such as pensions. However, if yields continue to rise rapidly, it could also exacerbate fiscal pressures and impact non-bank financial institutions and highly leveraged enterprises.
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