Goldman Sachs: No need to wait for midterm elections, the Goldilocks scenario could spark an early year-end rally in U.S. stocks.
2026.09.27 19:28:52
Goldman Sachs believes the market may currently be overpricing stagflation and U.S. Treasury yield upside risks. As tariff impacts fade, energy prices potentially decline, and AI technology drives cost reductions, U.S. inflation pressure is expected to ease. Meanwhile, while economic growth may slow, corporate core earnings remain resilient. In this "Goldilocks" scenario, enthusiasm for AI investment could reheat, and the year-end U.S. stock market rally may not need to wait until after the U.S. midterm elections to launch. Goldman Sachs partner Mark Wilson stated that recent market moves have shown related signs: AI-related assets, after months of consolidation, are once again attracting capital. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius noted that upside risks to U.S. economic growth are easing; as fiscal stimulus effects fade, gasoline prices and mortgage rates rise, economic growth may slow further, which will also limit room for global central banks to continue raising interest rates. Goldman Sachs U.S. Strategy Team Head Ben Snider added that while some sectors have posted temporary "excess profits," corporate core earnings are likely to sustain strong growth at least through the end of 2027. Based on this analysis, Goldman Sachs argues that if inflation continues to cool, economic growth slows moderately, and corporate earnings stay resilient, the market may gradually shift from its previous stagflation trade to the "Goldilocks" scenario.
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