Analyst: Bitcoin's net outflow from centralized exchanges (CEX) hits a new high in nearly a year, but futures buying remains cautious

As Bitcoin fluctuates near $83,000, a notable contraction has emerged in on-chain spot supply. According to a new report from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., as of September 27, the 7-day average of net BTC outflows from exchanges has risen to 16,100 BTC per day, the strongest level since early October 2025. On September 20, the 7-day average of net flows to trading platforms still stood at an inflow of 7,300 BTC per day; by September 22, the flow reversed, and net outflows have since continued to expand. Net outflows from trading platforms do not directly equate to new buying orders, but they signal a reduction in Bitcoin supply available for immediate trading, typically seen as a potential indicator of hoarding or transfer to long-term custody. However, the derivatives market has not provided equally strong confirmation of an upward trend. Adler’s Bitcoin Position Index shows that the 30-day average advantage of perpetual contract buyers has dropped from 7.6 on August 27 to -1.4 on September 28, and has remained below the zero threshold since September 23. This metric reflects the activity difference between buyers and sellers in the futures market; a negative value means longs have not taken the upper hand for now, but -1.4 remains close to the neutral range, with no significant expansion of short positions’ advantage. Analysts note that if net outflows from trading platforms persist and the Position Index rebounds back above zero, Bitcoin’s supply contraction will gain stronger trend confirmation. If net flows reverse back to inflows while futures buying remains weak, an increase in tradable Bitcoin on trading platforms will become a short-term risk.