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Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders' MVRV ratio rebounds to 1.35, exiting the mild pressure zone.

2026.09.29 16:31:04

,CryptoQuant 分析师 Zizcrypto 发文表示,调整后长期持有者(LTH)MVRV 指标已从浅度压力区间恢复,目前重新回到盈利状态。数据显示,6 个月至 10 年持币周期长期持有者群体的调整后 MVRV 在今年 4 月时持续压缩并位于 1.0 上方。MVRV 1.0 代表该群体整体盈亏平衡线,高于 1.0 意味着处于未实现盈利状态,低于 1.0 则代表未实现亏损。6 月至 8 月期间,该指标曾 5 次跌破 1.0,并于 6 月 30 日触及 2026 年低点约 0.94,当时 BTC 价格约为 5.85 万美元,而该群体实现价格基准约为 6.2 万美元,低于盈亏平衡线约 6%。不过,Zizcrypto 表示,此次压力持续时间和幅度均较有限,指标始终接近 1.0,并未进入 2019 年及 2022-2023 年期间长期持有者深度亏损阶段。截至 9 月 27 日,调整后 LTH MVRV 已恢复至约 1.35,BTC 价格约 8.45 万美元,而长期持有者实现价格约 6.27 万美元,现货价格较该成本基础高出约 35%。6 个月至 10 年持币周期长期持有者群体已走出浅度低于 1.0 的压力阶段,重新进入整体盈利状态,这更像是一次健康调整后的恢复,而非深度或持续性的亏损周期。

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