Analysis: The threat posed by a stronger U.S. dollar to Bitcoin may be overestimated, as the two assets have a weak long-term correlation.

A stronger U.S. dollar is generally seen as a headwind for U.S. dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and gold. The U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency and debt-denomination currency; when it appreciates, repayment costs for U.S. dollar debt borrowers rise, typically leading to reduced exposure to risk assets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen roughly 2.6% since September 9, hitting a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday. Bitcoin, after approaching $87,500 on September 21, has pulled back to the $83,000–$84,000 range. A stronger dollar may cap its upside, but the impact remains relatively limited for now. TradingView data shows that over the past 90 trading days, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the DXY is -0.41, the lowest since February 2023, indicating the two tend to move inversely. However, the corresponding coefficient of determination is only 0.17, meaning the DXY explains roughly 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return volatility. The 30-day correlation coefficient between the two is -0.45, but this result is largely skewed by two exceptional sessions on August 19 and September 3, when Bitcoin rallied over 5% while the DXY fell. Excluding those two days, the correlation drops to -0.19. Looking at a longer timeline, since January 2020, the average 90-day correlation coefficient between the two is just -0.14, and it once rose to +0.22 in November 2024. Bitcoin also shows no significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, indicating its movements are largely driven by its own factors. Technically, the DXY has reclaimed the Ichimoku cloud, but has not yet broken through the 101.80 resistance level. A breakout could end the sideways consolidation that has persisted since May 2025 and trigger an accelerated rally.