US Treasury yields have exceeded expectations for 9 consecutive months, though strategists still forecast a gradual decline over the next year.
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A Reuters survey shows fixed-income strategists expect US Treasury yields to decline in the coming months. Despite the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield notching its largest quarterly gain since 1994, strategists are sticking to their long-held bearish outlook on yields. However, after repeatedly misjudging yield trends over the past nine months, market confidence in a yield decline is waning. Some strategists argue that financial markets have overpriced expectations for a series of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and the actual scale of rate increases may be lower than market forecasts. Meanwhile, driven by inflation concerns stemming from the US-Israel conflict with Iran and rising policy rates among major global central banks, government financing costs in multiple advanced economies have recently climbed to multi-decade highs. Tech giants are borrowing heavily to build AI infrastructure, and increased US Treasury issuance has also added further upward pressure on yields. The Reuters survey of nearly 60 strategists, carried out between October 5 and 7, projects the median forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield to hit 5.00% by year-end, 4.90% six months later, and 4.75% one year later.
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