NVIDIA’s adjustment to its free cash flow metric draws attention: the sustainability of its $235 billion share repurchase plan is in question.
42 minutes ago
After expanding its stock repurchase authorization to $235 billion, NVIDIA has begun emphasizing returning cash to shareholders using free cash flow (FCF) net of "strategic uses"—meaning external equity investments will also eat into cash available for buybacks and dividends. However, NVIDIA has not formally revised its traditional FCF calculation formula. Data shows that in the first half of its fiscal year ending July 26, NVIDIA posted a net cash outflow of $35.2 billion from equity investments, plus an additional $4.5 billion in cash withholding taxes related to employee stock vesting, and roughly $9 billion in buybacks used to offset share dilution from equity incentives. If these expenses are factored in, its FCF would drop from the official figure of $69.9 billion to around $21.7 billion, a reduction of roughly 69%. Over the same period, NVIDIA added $24.9 billion in long-term debt, which partially funded additional stock repurchases. While Wall Street projects its fiscal 2028 FCF will exceed $330 billion, if strategic investments continue to expand, the actual cash available for shareholder returns could be significantly lower than what the traditional metric suggests. NVIDIA’s investments in AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic also create a circular flow of funds with its chip sales, sparking market concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom.
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