Next Week's Macro Outlook: CPI Data Tests Fed’s Stance on Pausing Rate Hikes, IMF’s Walsh Speech Takes Center Stage

Next week, global markets will focus on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether the Federal Reserve maintains its "discontinuous rate hike" stance. While most Fed officials believe another rate hike may be possible this year, recent comments indicate no urgency to act at consecutive meetings. Market pricing for a rate hike on October 28 has fallen to around 19%, while a December rate hike is fully priced in. Geopolitically, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and escalating tensions in Yemen continue to support oil risk premiums, with the U.S.-Russia diesel supply deal having limited short-term impact. Below is a key event calendar: Tuesday: Speech by Cleveland Fed President Patrick Harker; Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at the India Bloomberg New Economy Forum; U.S. September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, ADP employment change for the week ending September 26, September existing home sales annualized total; OPEC releases its monthly oil market report. Wednesday: U.S. September CPI and core CPI; Fed officials’ pre-Brown Book comments; Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman deliver speeches; IEA releases its monthly oil market report. Thursday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, October New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes; G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting. Friday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell attends the IMF Annual Meeting in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; Cleveland Fed President Patrick Harker speaks again; U.S. September Import Price Index, industrial production; U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.