UBS projects gold will climb to $5,400 by September next year, with the $4,000 area likely to act as a key support level.

UBS said that despite a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. real rates weighing on gold prices, and short-term speculative funds cutting net long positions in gold futures and options, gold ETFs have continued to attract capital inflows recently, signaling that medium and long-term allocation demand remains intact. The bank projects gold prices could find support near $4,000 per ounce, and rise to $4,600 in December 2026, $5,000 in March 2027, $5,200 in June 2027, and hit $5,400 in September 2027. UBS attributes gold’s support to sustained global central bank gold purchases, robust demand from China, and potential physical gold demand spurred by India’s festival season. Additionally, investor concerns over public debt, fiscal risks, and the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar may also enhance gold’s allocation appeal. That said, if the U.S. dollar and real yields continue to strengthen, gold prices could still see further short-term pullbacks. For its part, Credit Agricole forecasts gold prices will reach $5,000 per ounce in December 2026. Both institutions agree that central bank reserve diversification and market worries over the Federal Reserve’s policy being impacted by fiscal pressures could drive gold’s medium and long-term gains.