Analysis: Bitcoin may trade sideways within the range of $81,300 to $84,500 this week, with Wednesday's CPI data determining its subsequent direction.

Bitfinex Alpha released a report stating that Bitcoin’s price movement this week will be influenced by Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data release and the strength of spot buying. The report predicts that before the CPI announcement, BTC will likely trade in a range of $81,300 to $84,500. It notes that BTC has fallen 7.9% from its October 2 high of $87,197, hitting a low of $80,347 on October 8 before reclaiming the previous range high of $81,300. During the same period, around $1.18 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, and open interest has not yet recovered significantly, meaning the next market move will rely more on spot market demand, which remains the weakest link in the market. The overall cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $84,340, slightly above the current price, so some investors may sell near their cost basis if the price rebounds. On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE inflation rate stands at 3%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield is 2.91%. The report argues that if core CPI’s month-over-month increase does not exceed 0.2%, interest rate expectations may be lowered, providing upward momentum for BTC; if it hits 0.3% or higher, spot buying will face greater pressure. The report adds that if BTC successfully breaks above $84,500 supported by ETF inflows, its next target could be the year-to-date opening price of $87,722; if it consistently falls below $81,300 and ETF outflows resume, attention should be paid to the real market average of around $77,400.