Goldman Sachs upgrades its short-term global equity rating to "Overweight", forecasting the S&P 500’s third-quarter earnings growth rate will reach 27%.

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its global stock rating from "neutral" to "overweight" for the next three months, while retaining its bullish stance over the coming 12 months. The bank noted that sustained corporate earnings growth, stock valuations pulling back from summer highs, and reduced investor positioning have improved stocks’ risk-reward ratio. FactSet data shows the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from 21.1x in early June to 19.1x, compared to roughly 22x at the start of the year. Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 constituents will post 27% year-over-year earnings growth in the third quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of earnings gains exceeding 25%, with AI infrastructure investment remaining a key driver. On regional allocation, the bank maintained "overweight" ratings for U.S. and Asian stocks, and an "underweight" rating for European equities. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 12-month government bond rating to "overweight", recommending a "barbell strategy": allocate to tech stocks on one end, and stocks with bond-like characteristics on the other, while favoring shorter-duration bonds and cash assets. The bank also warned that rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher energy prices, and uncertainty around the U.S. midterm elections could still exacerbate market volatility. Its bullish outlook remains contingent on sustained delivery of corporate earnings and no further deterioration in financial conditions.