Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's trend awaits CPI data to determine direction, with the $81,000 lower support level likely to be tested first.

Bitcoin has pulled back from around $86,000 since early October, trading in a range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, as the U.S. dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields stay at high levels. Against this backdrop, Cloud, chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes the range is more likely to break downward. The September ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, while the University of Michigan’s 1-year inflation expectation for October rebounded to 4.7%. The concurrent rise in price sub-indexes and inflation expectations signals a high probability that this Thursday’s CPI will exceed market expectations. If that materializes, bets on a year-end interest rate hike will strengthen further, and the $81,000 lower bound will be tested first. Only if CPI comes in below expectations will a breakout above the $84,000 upper bound be sustainable. Recent sustained declines in chip stocks mainly stem from a repricing of AI capital expenditure timelines and hardware profit expectations within the sector, an industry-specific alpha event. In contrast, Bitcoin’s pullback has been far smaller, indicating its current pricing anchor leans more toward macro liquidity, with its connection to AI narratives weakening—their respective drivers are diverging. However, this divergence is temporary; once the U.S. dollar and long-term rates regain pricing dominance, their correlation will strengthen rapidly, with Thursday evening’s CPI release serving as the latest test window. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.