Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO): Bitcoin Likely to Benefit Long-Term, Regardless of AI Boom or Its Bubble Burst

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in a client report that Bitcoin is likely to benefit in the long run regardless of whether AI drives an economic boom, an investment bubble bursts, or the economy grows only moderately. In the scenario where the AI bubble bursts and triggers a recession similar to 2008, given AI’s geopolitical significance, he puts the probability of subsequent government bailouts at “nearly 100%”. Bitcoin may first face a sell-off before rallying sharply amid a surge in the money supply. If AI significantly lifts productivity and GDP while cutting costs in sectors like software and legal services, Hougan forecasts that scarce assets such as Bitcoin will appreciate. Should the economy sustain 3% growth, 4% interest rates and a near soft landing, Bitcoin will still be supported by ETF inflows, adoption by financial advisors, and allocations on corporate and sovereign balance sheets. He cautioned that Bitcoin will not rise in a straight line, with some scenarios potentially involving difficult initial phases. Threats including quantum computing, coordinated government crackdowns, or renewed fiscal austerity by Western governments could also undermine his thesis; he considers these scenarios unlikely but not impossible.