Citrini's view: Yangtze Memory Technologies may go public as early as December this year, leading to a liquidity competition with Changxin.

Citrini analyst Jukan has shared a report from South Korean brokerage Hanwha Investment & Securities, which, following local research in China, concludes that Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) is more likely to go public in December this year, rather than the mid-March next year timeline previously projected based on ChangXin Memory Technologies’ schedule. YMTC plans to raise approximately 33 billion yuan, a larger sum than ChangXin’s planned ~29.5 billion yuan. Of the total funds, around 20.8 billion yuan will be allocated to scaling mass production and constructing its Phase III production line, with the goal of boosting its NAND flash market share by 2027. Analyst Jukan points out that large-scale IPOs will temporarily siphon liquidity from existing tech stocks, leading investors to sell holdings including ChangXin to subscribe for the new offering. ChangXin currently has a tradable share float of just ~6.73%, and starting January 2027, approximately 2.24% of its total shares will be unlocked. Valued at the October 16 closing price, these unlocked shares are worth roughly 68.5 billion yuan; if the stock returns to its peak, that figure would rise to ~94 billion yuan, creating notable tradable share pressure.