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Wintermute: Bitcoin faces a test at the $82,500 level, with AI risks and Federal Reserve policy potentially triggering volatility.

1 hours ago

Crypto market maker Wintermute updated its market report today, noting that multiple upcoming events—including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports—could soon break Bitcoin’s current narrow trading range. A breakout above $87,000 would confirm an upward move, while a valid drop below $82,500 could push prices further down to around $70,000. On the macro front, U.S. headline CPI rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, with core CPI increasing 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the market’s 0.2% expectation and stoking concerns about energy price pass-through to core inflation. Wintermute added that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury prices largely reflects capital exiting crowded AI growth stock trades, rather than improved inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Fed to hold rates steady at its October 28 meeting, but a hawkish signal could prematurely reinforce bets on a December rate hike, pushing up Treasury yields and pressuring risk assets. Within the crypto market, funds are flowing into major coins. The report shows Bitcoin’s weekly decline stands at 1.99%, the Nasdaq index is down 5.52%, and altcoins overall have fallen 5.69%. Capital has continued to flow into BTC and ETH while exiting most altcoins, with high-beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes major coins currently offer a more attractive risk-reward ratio, and a broad altcoin rally may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further. The firm also pointed out that current implied volatility is low, and with the Fed decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating subsequent volatility risks. The October 28 Fed meeting will be a key near-term catalyst, while earnings from AI-related companies will also influence market sentiment around computing power investment, financing costs, and business models.

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RWA platform tx launches USTX, a US dollar stablecoin mintable via USDC on 8 blockchains.

Real World Assets (RWA) platform tx has launched USTX, a U.S. dollar stablecoin, for use on its wallet and upcoming tokenized stock trading marketplace. Users can mint USTX using USDC or redeem USTX back to USDC, with support for deposits from 8 blockchains including Ethereum, Solana, and Base. USTX is issued, its reserves managed, and minting and redemption services provided by fintech platform Brale. tx co-founder and chief legal officer Ashley Ebersole stated that USTX is not a USDC-backed wrapped token nor a synthetic representation of USDC, but instead features an independent 1:1 reserve structure. According to tx, each USTX is backed by $1 worth of assets including cash, bank deposits, government money market funds, and short-term U.S. Treasuries. tx added that eligible USTX users can earn rewards via its wallet incentive program. However, the U.S. GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest or returns to users solely for holding, using, or retaining payment stablecoins. Ebersole said tx’s overall incentive program was designed under legal guidance to ensure compliance with relevant regulatory requirements.

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Seven companies including Microsoft and Google’s parent company Alphabet oppose trading their tokenized stocks on the OKX-ICE platform.

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Cloudflare deploys three AIs in a relay workflow for claims processing; internal tests show the system is 3.2 times faster and reduces costs by 49%.

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CoreWeave's bond plunge raises a red flag, with the Federal Reserve likely to re-examine its interest rate hike pace.

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Binance Alpha will list Axis Robotics (AXIS) on October 21st.

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Wall Street buys "insurance" for AI debt: AI-related firms raised $466 billion this year, credit default swap (CDS) costs for Meta and Nvidia hit all-time highs.

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