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Prediction market crypto contract trading volume hits a new high, with 15-minute Bitcoin up/down prediction bets surging in popularity.

2 days ago

According to Bloomberg, as Bitcoin prices trade in a range, trading of crypto-related event contracts in prediction markets continues to heat up. Data compiled by Dune Analytics users shows that last week, the notional trading volume of crypto-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket hit $2.7 billion, a record high. Among these, short-term Bitcoin price up/down contracts are the most popular, allowing users to bet on whether Bitcoin or other assets’ prices will rise or fall at the end of time windows such as 5 minutes and 15 minutes. A single 15-minute Bitcoin contract on Kalshi can see trading volumes exceeding $1 million, with some traders using trading bots to seek opportunities seconds before contract expiration. Cryptocurrencies have become the second-largest contract category on both Kalshi and Polymarket, trailing only sports. Trading volumes of Bitcoin year-end price contracts on the two platforms are also substantial: as of Thursday, Kalshi’s related contracts saw over $42 million in volume, while a Polymarket contract predicting Bitcoin’s 2026 price recorded around $78 million in trading volume. Crypto trading platforms including Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, and Kraken are actively expanding into prediction markets; some have obtained relevant business authorizations in the U.S., while others are applying for licenses. Bloomberg notes that prediction markets offer new business growth avenues for crypto trading platforms, though legal disputes and regulatory uncertainties surrounding sports contracts could also impact the industry’s future development.

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