Brent crude has hit $117 for the first time since April, with US-Iran tensions "on the brink of conflict"

Middle East tensions remain high, pushing international oil prices sharply higher on Friday. Brent crude hit a session peak of $117.45 per barrel, marking its first breach of the $117 mark since April, closing at $116.72 with a monthly gain exceeding 10%. The rally was driven primarily by expectations of a potential renewed escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions. On Friday, Trump both hinted at a possible new military strike on Iran and claimed such a conflict could end quickly. Reports indicate that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed plans to strike Iran again after the U.S. November midterm elections, though Trump has not yet decided whether to approve the operation. Potential targets include Iran’s missile and drone arsenals, energy infrastructure, and nuclear facilities. Separately, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that two supertankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz, carrying a combined 4.5 million barrels of crude oil; these claims have not yet been independently verified. Reuters also reported that Iran has drawn up plans to target undersea communication cables in the Gulf in response to potential new attacks by the U.S. and Israel. The energy shock is spilling over into financial markets: the U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate rose to 2.47%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.99%, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.5% on Friday. Analysts warned that if the conflict spirals out of control and causes severe damage to critical oil infrastructure, international oil prices could surge further to $150 per barrel.