The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October is only around 10%, with markets pricing in another rate hike in December, and Fed official Walsh’s speech next week has become a key focus.
1 days ago
Current market consensus expects the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates steady at its next rate-setting meeting next Wednesday. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows the market assigns only a roughly 10% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in October. Some Fed officials have recently leaned toward pausing rate hikes to assess inflation trends and the impact of surging energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict. While expectations for an October rate hike have cooled, the market still broadly anticipates another Fed rate hike in December. David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, believes the Fed may adopt a pace of 25-basis-point rate hikes at every other policy meeting, with the next hike likely in December and another in March next year. Another key highlight of the upcoming meeting is the press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Since Powell has consistently avoided providing clear forward guidance, the market will closely watch his remarks on recent inflation, financial conditions, and the threshold for further monetary policy tightening in 2027.
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