Bank of Korea warns: South Korea's chip exports could drop by $100 billion if AI capital expenditure slows down.
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Reuters reports that the Bank of Korea (BOK) has warned that if major U.S. tech companies slow capital expenditure in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector next year, South Korea’s semiconductor exports could drop by $50 billion to $100 billion from previous forecasts. In a written response to lawmaker Ahn Doo-jae, the BOK modeled this pessimistic scenario, assuming a 10% decline in unit prices of South Korean semiconductor products. Under this scenario, South Korea’s 2027 GDP growth would be reduced by roughly 0.4 percentage points, and its current account surplus would be far lower than the earlier preliminary forecast of $430 billion. South Korea’s economy is highly dependent on semiconductor exports, with chip exports accounting for about half of the country’s total exports. Meanwhile, capital expenditure by five U.S. tech firms—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle—is projected to rise from $40 billion last year to $80 billion this year, and reach $110 billion next year. The BOK noted that significant uncertainty remains regarding the trajectory of AI demand and the memory chip industry cycle; if tech giants cut AI infrastructure investment, South Korea’s chip exports and overall economic growth could both be impacted.
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