World Bank forecasts a 23% increase in commodity prices by 2026, with a projected 7% decline next year.
1 hours ago
The World Bank said Wednesday that global commodity prices are projected to rise 23% in 2026, driven by factors including surging energy prices, disrupted freight, blocked Black Sea grain shipments amid the Middle East war, and strong demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. In its latest *Commodity Markets Outlook* report, the bank noted that prices of oil, natural gas, food and metals have all risen sharply this year as global shocks intensify. If the Middle East conflict escalates further and Russia’s oil infrastructure continues to be damaged, the situation could deteriorate. The report forecasts commodity prices will fall 7% next year. However, if such shocks persist—including the occurrence of the most severe El Niño event since 1950—food commodity prices may stay elevated, raising risks of inflation and tighter monetary policy. The World Bank added that global oil inventories have been continuously depleted amid the Middle East war. It projects global oil supply will drop 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline over the past 40 years excluding the 2020 global recession period.
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