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Ansem: "The limited decline of BTC after the Binance hack does not signal the end of the downtrend"

57 minutes ago

Crypto trader Ansem stated in a post that the fact Bitcoin fell only 2% amid a $6 billion theft should not be directly viewed as a bullish signal. He argues that Bitcoin’s trading structure has changed significantly from years ago, and the market’s lack of an immediate selloff in response to the event does not mean the downtrend will not continue. Ansem noted that in 2017, Bitcoin was still the primary asset for retail crypto leveraged speculation, but between 2020 and 2021, retail traders took on higher risks by trading altcoins, with new participants on Uniswap showing limited interest in Bitcoin. After 2023, as altcoins on centralized exchanges underperformed, speculative activity shifted further on-chain, boosting the popularity of meme coins; now, stock perpetual contracts have further siphoned off traders who would otherwise have gone long on BTC with leverage. This shift has impacted BTC’s price performance, Ansem says. In 2017, Bitcoin typically rallied quickly after hitting new all-time highs, while in 2021 and parts of 2023–2025, it more often saw failed breakouts after minor new highs and months of narrow sideways consolidation. He cited the October 10 liquidation event as an example: BTC’s decline was limited compared to altcoins at the time, trading above $100,000 for weeks afterward, while altcoins suffered heavy losses in a single candlestick. In his view, this trend is tied to high-risk speculators no longer concentrating leveraged long positions on BTC. Ansem emphasized that current sellers may be more passive, and fewer speculators in the BTC market face liquidation risk than in the past, so the asset’s short-term resilience to declines cannot be taken as proof the downtrend has ended.

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