UBS: Market Underestimates AI Cycle Duration, Inflection Point for Return on Investment Expected by 2027
1 hours ago
According to Bloomberg, Gerry Fowler, UBS’s chief European equity strategist and head of derivatives, said the market is underestimating the duration of the AI cycle, and AI trading remains robust. He noted that some hyperscale cloud providers now trade at valuation multiples below 20 times, while their revenue still grows 10% to 20% annually, reflecting a fairly pessimistic market outlook, which is why many investors are still willing to re-enter AI-related assets. Fowler believes massive AI spending is nearing the stage where it will start generating returns, with a potential inflection point in 2027: data center deliveries are expected to clear backlogs, driving revenue to gradually catch up with capital expenditures. He added that cash has not disappeared from the market, but has shifted to suppliers such as memory chip makers, which are now starting to return cash to investors. The pricing of memory chip companies also reflects what he views as an overly short AI cycle. As for the next set of beneficiaries, Fowler is more focused on global and European industrial firms that help build new factories. He noted that many infrastructure suppliers, such as cable and power equipment makers, have order books extending into 2027 and even 2028, leaving limited room for further upward revisions to earnings forecasts. ASML benefits from supplying equipment to memory chip makers expanding capacity, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, rather than directly to data centers; he said ASML and some European industrial firms are seeing upward revisions to their outlooks.
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