Predict.fun: Probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections rises to 99%

AMD released its third-quarter financial results this morning, reporting revenue of $13.377 billion, a year-on-year rise of 45%, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, both exceeding market expectations. Data center revenue and fourth-quarter revenue guidance also came in above forecasts. According to TradingBeats monitoring, after the earnings release at 05:15 Beijing time, AMD’s perpetual contract jumped from around $486.10 prior to the announcement to a peak of $530.51, a gain of roughly 9.14%. It has since pulled back to $500.8, with the post-earnings increase narrowing to approximately 3.03%, erasing about two-thirds of the earlier rally. The 24-hour trading volume stands at around $111 million, and the current nominal value of open interest is roughly $17.51 million. The area around the long position break-even line of $522, highlighted in our earlier news brief, was briefly breached, with the price even temporarily exceeding the average entry price of $527.38 of the largest long-position whale 0xfd6a. However, this whale has not reduced its position since yesterday noon and currently holds approximately $4.2483 million in AMD long positions, with an unrealized loss of around $225,200.

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UBS stated, "The market is currently exhibiting risk-off sentiment, responding to the growing likelihood of a 'blue wave' led by the Democratic Party. This means headwinds for investments in artificial intelligence and data centers may increase, while political gridlock and bargaining over debt ceiling and fiscal policy issues could also intensify."

According to the latest data, 154 House of Representatives seats in the ongoing U.S. midterm elections have been called. The Democratic Party has won 102 seats (including 5 flipped from the Republican Party), while the GOP has secured only 52 seats. Election forecasting firm Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) has projected that the Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, regaining a majority after four years in the minority, ushering in a new era of divided government in the U.S. The House has 435 total seats, with a majority requiring 218 seats.

According to HTX market data, SOL has dropped below $90, currently trading at $89.98, with a 24-hour decline of 1.94%.

Franklin Templeton’s Head of Fixed Income for Australia, Andrew Canobi, said the initial reaction of financial markets to the U.S. midterm elections can be summed up as a slight shift of funds from stocks to bonds, showing a certain risk-averse tendency. He added that if the Democrats take control of Congress, markets may view this as a constraint on U.S. President Donald Trump’s growth agenda, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence and resources. Additionally, as traders believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be nearing the end of its interest rate hikes, Australia’s three-year government bond yield has fallen by 15 basis points since the start of this week. (Jin10)