Analysis: BTC encounters resistance at the upper bound of short-term holders' cost basis, with retracement watch levels ranging from $72,300 to $75,700.
50 minutes ago
Market analyst Murphy wrote in a recent note that reviewing the period from January to September 2023, BTC price encountered resistance at the 1-standard-deviation level above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) line, followed by a pullback each time. Of the three pullbacks, the first perfectly retested the STH-RP line, the second dipped slightly below it, and the third landed between the STH-RP line and the 1 standard deviation below it. Murphy added that the current STH-RP stands at roughly $75,700, while the 1 standard deviation below it is approximately $68,900. Based solely on this pattern, there is a certain probability of three scenarios: a pullback to $75,700, a pullback to $72,300, or a level between the two. Murphy stressed that he is not aiming to predict market movements, but only to outline trading plans. Combined with his earlier analysis of the "Seller Exhaustion Index", BTC formed the second low of this cycle when it pulled back to around $77,000, only higher than the signal point recorded in August this year. The analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice.
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