Analyst: Market has priced in the Democrats' sweep of the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin rebounds 1.6%

Circle’s latest disclosed financial report shows that as of September 30, the total fair value of digital assets held by the company is approximately $133 million. The holdings include around 380 million Canton Coin (valued at ~$47.99 million), ~504,000 HYPE (valued at ~$45.88 million), 77 BTC (valued at ~$6.39 million, including ~$3.3 million in cirBTC), ~4.1 million SUI (valued at ~$4.77 million), 1,728 ETH (valued at ~$4.64 million), and other digital assets worth ~$23.7 million. Notably, HYPE holdings have grown more than fivefold from roughly 81,000 at the end of last year. These holding figures were not disclosed in Circle’s earlier Q3 8-K financial press release. The quarterly report also reveals that Circle sold a total of 807.5 million ARC at $0.30 per token in Q2, raising ~$242.2 million—about $20 million more than the $222 million reported by CNBC in May this year. Of that total, $181.8 million was recognized as revenue in Q3. An IDG Capital-related entity holding over 5% of Circle’s shares purchased 83.3 million ARC at the same price on May 8, amounting to $25 million. Additionally, Binance’s $100 million equity investment in Circle was paid in USDC, prompting Circle to privately issue approximately 1.237 million Class A ordinary shares.

Following the release of U.S. midterm election results, the Democratic Party retook control of both chambers of Congress, but U.S. stocks rebounded quickly after a brief dip. Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 2.4% on election night, then turned to gain 0.9%, bouncing roughly 929 points from their intraday low; S&P 500 futures rose around 1%, while Dow futures climbed about 700 points. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank attributed the rally mainly to the unwinding of hedging positions built up ahead of the election once results became clear, while falling political uncertainty also compressed market risk premiums. Goldman Sachs noted that the AI infrastructure sector had already seen significant valuation compression, and a drop in short-term volatility could further support equities. Still, market concerns over AI investment persist. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa stated that construction permits for data centers will not be unfrozen until a more comprehensive regulatory framework is in place, which could delay several gigawatts of planned computing capacity originally set to launch in 2027 to 2028. Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, views the U.S. debt ceiling issue, which could come to a head in the second quarter of next year, as a key policy risk. Whether the Republican Party can reach a debt ceiling adjustment deal before the new Congress takes office in January will impact subsequent fiscal policy uncertainty. Analysts argue that the current rally largely reflects position adjustments and risk premium compression, with data center construction permits, AI infrastructure investment, and debt ceiling negotiations being the key tests the market will face going forward.

U.S. stock market opens: Dow Jones rises 1.9%, S&P 500 gains 1.1%, Nasdaq climbs 1.07%. Democrats outperformed expectations in the U.S. midterm elections, driving strength in clean energy and healthcare-related stocks: FTC Solar (FTCI.O) surges 40%, First Solar (FSLR) rises 13%, Gilead Sciences (GILD.O) gains 2%, Moderna (MRNA.O) climbs 3%. Stocks linked to Elon Musk and Donald Trump weakened: Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) falls 9.8%, SpaceX (SPCX.O) drops 5%, Tesla (TSLA.O) declines 4%.

After the U.S. midterm elections, soaring cost of living has emerged as the top policy priority for the incoming Democratic-controlled Congress. Relevant data shows that since the start of Trump’s second term, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen by around 5.4% cumulatively, food prices by about 4.5%, and gasoline prices by a sharp 39%. Multiple pre-election polls found that roughly 90% of respondents viewed the cost of living as a key voting issue, and nearly two-thirds of voters blamed inflation on the Trump administration’s policies. The Republican Party lost control of both chambers of Congress in the midterms amid voter frustration over prices and economic strains. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader expected to become Speaker of the House in January next year, said the Democratic Party, upon assuming control of Congress, should focus on lowering the cost of living rather than pursuing retaliation against Trump. He noted that U.S. voters want the Democrats to effectively address the high cost of living, not engage in political retaliation against Trump. The Democrats won the election on the strength of their platform of improving affordability, and now need to deliver on that priority in their governance.

Coinbase published a post detailing its user asset protection mechanisms, stating it was not impacted by Binance’s earlier hot wallet security incident, and that its platform systems and user funds remain unharmed. The exchange noted that over 99% of user assets are held in cold wallets, with only a small portion in hot wallets to cover daily user withdrawals and usage needs, and balances are dynamically adjusted based on deposit and withdrawal demands. All institutional custody vault assets are cold-stored and isolated on-chain. For fund transfer security, Coinbase employs distributed key protection, withdrawal limits, abnormal activity monitoring, and emergency stop mechanisms. Cold wallet private keys are split for storage and never fully reconstructed during the signing process; the key signing service in hot wallet production environments also prohibits individual independent access. If abnormal transactions or surging withdrawal volumes are detected, the system initiates investigations and imposes limits, and can suspend partial or full fund transfers by disabling signing keys when necessary. Coinbase also emphasized that user assets are always held by users, with the platform maintaining a 1:1 asset reserve, and will not lend or misappropriate assets without user consent. As of September 30, 2026, Coinbase’s platform asset size reached $377 billion, holding $8.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and $2.2 billion in investment-grade crypto assets. The company added that as AI capability development reshapes the security risk landscape, it will continue to increase investment in security technologies.

Nov 4 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -859 $BTC(-$67.33M)?? 7D NetFlow: -12,641 $BTC(-$990.98M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -34,497 $ETH(-$79.99M)?? 7D NetFlow: -202,950 $ETH(-$470.58M)??