Arthur Hayes: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI’s post-IPO performance has weighed on crypto market liquidity.

In his latest article titled "D is for Dilution", Arthur Hayes notes that after SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, insiders and early investors may unlock and sell large blocks of shares, creating sustained equity dilution pressure that pushes down stock prices and erodes market confidence in the AI sector’s profit outlook. According to his estimates, SpaceX will have roughly 860 million shares set to unlock by the end of June 2027, equivalent to an additional ~50% of its outstanding shares; Anthropic’s early IPO investors could face around 83% dilution. For OpenAI, Hayes predicts its IPO will likely follow a similar structure, gradually releasing holdings from employees and early investors post-listing. Persistent stock price pressure will impact these firms’ financing capabilities: investors may demand higher bond yields or even refuse to provide capital, driving up financing costs for the AI industry and spilling over to upstream data center, chip, and related businesses. If AI-related credit markets cool or freeze, the expansion of the U.S. banking system’s balance sheets may slow, leading to a contraction in dollar liquidity that weighs on the crypto market. Eventually, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks may inject liquidity to address the crisis, a move that would benefit Bitcoin and crypto assets. Prior to that, Hayes said Maelstrom will remain on the sidelines for now, adding that as data centers come online, increased computing power supply could drive down computing costs, with AI projects like FLOP Network and Genlayer poised to benefit.